Tight Truckload Capacity Before the Holidays: Five Ways to Keep Freight Moving
Monday, November 2, 2026
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Truckload freight volumes have eased since summer, but capacity has not loosened. Carriers were rejecting roughly one in seven contracted truckload tenders in October, about 13.9% as of October 20, according to FreightWaves SONAR data. That rate has held between 13% and 14% since August. A year earlier, the market entered peak season with rejections under 6%. Analysts describe this as a supply-led market: fewer available trucks and drivers, rather than a surge in freight.
The spot market tells the same story. DAT reported a national dry van spot rate of $2.24 per mile (linehaul, excluding fuel) for the week ending October 24, up about 33% from a year earlier, with 9.51 van loads posted for every available truck compared with 6.03 a year ago.
Fuel adds to the pressure. The U.S. Energy Information Administration put the national average on-highway diesel price at $6.352 per gallon for the week of October 26, up $2.634 from a year earlier.
With Thanksgiving on November 26 and December shipping close behind, here is what shippers can do now.
Why capacity is tight
Industry reporting points to several factors at once: stricter enforcement of driver qualification rules, including English-language proficiency and non-domiciled CDL requirements; a cleanup of FMCSA's driver Training Provider Registry, which the agency's chief safety officer said has removed more than 10,000 providers since December 2025; carrier exits; and high fuel costs. The TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index projects fourth-quarter truckload rates per mile at their highest level since early 2022, and LTL rates per pound at a new high.
1. Tender loads earlier than usual
FreightWaves reported contract tender lead times of about three and a half to four days in mid-October. Give carriers more notice than usual, especially for the weeks around Thanksgiving and the run-up to Christmas. Share volume forecasts with your transportation provider so capacity can be planned rather than found at the last minute.
2. Widen pickup and delivery windows
Tight appointment windows make a load harder to cover. Where possible, offer wider receiving windows, confirm holiday receiving hours at both ends, and avoid scheduling pickups on the day before or after a holiday.
3. Check the fuel component on every quote
Diesel prices change weekly. Ask which published diesel price a quote uses, which week it applies to, and how the fuel surcharge is calculated. Our fuel-surcharge guide walks through what to confirm.
4. Compare modes and shipment sizes
When truckload capacity is tight, compare options. Several LTL shipments to the same region may move better as a volume or full truckload shipment, and a small load may fit LTL. Our guide on when to ship full truckload over LTL explains the trade-offs. For longer lanes with flexible timing, ask whether intermodal is an option.
5. Keep carrier vetting tight
Tight markets attract freight fraud. Federal regulators have stepped up action against fraudulent carriers and registrations. Confirm active operating authority and insurance for every carrier, or work with a provider that checks them for you, and be cautious with unexpected changes to carrier contact or payment details.
Ready to plan your holiday freight? Share your lanes, volumes, and delivery dates with our team:
Request a Freight Quote
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Sources
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (week of Oct 26, 2026)
FreightWaves, “Reefer Truckload Rejections Soar: 1 in 5 Loads Rejected Nationally” (Oct 20, 2026)
FreightWaves, “No signs of truckload capacity recovering” (Oct 17, 2026)
FreightWaves, “Freight Market Alert: Why October's Tender Rejections Hit 14% Unexpectedly” (Oct 14, 2026)
DAT, “Dry Van Report: Spot rates slip as load posts cool, but tight capacity holds them up” (Oct 26, 2026)
FreightWaves, “LTL rates hit new high in Q3, moving higher in Q4” (TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index; Oct 14, 2026)
FreightWaves, “FMCSA removes 10,000-plus driver training providers amid safety push” (Oct 28, 2026)
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